Airbnb has no effect on crime but may contribute to increased residential property value and gentrification
By Maria Bonnemaison, Zhaozhou Dai and Claire Yates
A study conducted by researchers at Northeastern University claimed that Airbnb listings in Boston directly caused a rise in violence and crime incidents across the city. The study, published on July 14, suggests that the increased amount of violence was not related to an influx of tourism to the area, rather it was a result of a weak sense of community in neighborhoods due to disruptions from short-term rentals.
However, data collected from Inside Airbnb, an open-source data tool that collects Airbnb data from cities all over the world, and crime reports from the Boston Police Department show there is no significant relationship between Airbnb listings and increased crime.
The Boston Police Department collected data on the number of crime incidents for each police district in Boston since 2015. Police districts are geographical areas determined by the BPD and city government, where the police precinct patrols. It is unclear specifically what metrics the BPD uses to draw the boundaries of these districts, but they are determined using aspects such as physical area, population and occupations in the region.
Multiple neighborhoods are represented in some police districts. In order to accurately compare the data, Boston neighborhoods were grouped together by police districts, as follows:
The Northeastern study suggests their “results point to the possibility that the large-scale conversion of housing units into short-term rentals undermines a neighborhood’s social organization and in turn its natural ability of a neighborhood to counteract and discourage crime, specifically violent crime.”
Researchers created models to indicate that the rise of Airbnb listings created a rise in crime in subsequent years. The City of Boston provided data from the BPD that gathers daily records of crimes in Boston from 2015 to 2021, including the specific time, place, crime type and detailed districts. According to this data, crime incidents have decreased in most districts since 2018.
The researchers stated that it is evident tourists are not the cause of higher crime rates, instead short-term rentals “fail to contribute to critical neighborhood social dynamics.” However, the researchers also revealed they did not directly test “whether social organization is indeed the intervening variable.”
The line chart indicates that Roxbury has the highest number of crimes among all districts in the past five years, even reaching 15,977 incidents of crime incidents in 2017. From 2018-2019, the number of cases dropped significantly from 15,658 to 10,328, but the number of crimes among all districts was still the highest.
Dorchester, District C-11, is behind Roxbury with the second-largest number of crimes. Since 2015, there have been 7,352 cases. That number has flucuated in the last five years, but in 2021 it reached 8,084 cases. The third highest crime district is South End/Fenway, close to Dorchester’s five-year fluctuation, with 8,319 cases in 2021. What is more, the lowest number of crimes from 2015 to 2021 in Charlestown. In these five years, the annual number of crime incidents in Charlestown is stable at around 2,000 cases, the lowest number and the most stable fluctuation.
In order to compare crime incidents in police districts to Airbnb in Boston neighborhoods, we combined the neighborhoods into districts and counted how many new listings each district gained each year.
This chart shows that Downtown has the highest number of new listings since 2020. It’s important to note that the number of new listings decreased in 2020 due to the lockdowns and travel bans from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, in 2021 new listings in Downtown nearly quadrupled since last year, and since 2016, when crime incidents increased across all of Boston. Crime in Boston did not decrease significantly until 2019, but Downtown listings continued to increase. After 2020, Airbnb saw a massive increase in listings in popular areas like Downtown and Fenway, which also quadrupled. Meanwhile, crime incidents in all districts have remained mostly the same or decreased slightly.
We also compared whether the location of the Airbnb listing affected the customer ratings.
The plot shows that most Airbnb listings were in the 4 to 5-star range despite the location and number of crime incidents in the area. This shows that not only does Airbnb not affect the number of crime incidents, but also the number of crimes and location do not significantly impact the ratings of the listing. In other words, regardless of where someone decides to book an Airbnb, the location is not likely to affect the overall rating of the listing.
Airbnb categorizes reviews into multiple categories including overall rating and location rating, which is based on proximity to local attractions and overall safety.
To analyze this further, we also looked at location rating and crime incidents on a smaller scale. Because the average review is between 4 to 5 stars, we looked at how the reviews fluctuate within that range.
According to the above bubble chart, which shows the relationship between total crimes and average review score rating. Contrary to Roxbury, Charlestown, has the lowest total number of crimes in five years, with 11,515 cases. At the same time, its average review score rating is 4.85, which is the highest score of all. However, the chart indicates South End has the highest review score location but has the third most crime incidents.
Airbnb released a statement soon after the Northeastern study was published stating that the study “applies a faulty methodology including a flawed regression analysis; and relies on inaccurate data. The result is a paper with inaccurate conclusions not supported by the evidence.”
Therefore, Airbnb has no clear effect on crime rates in the city and crime rates have little to no effect on the ratings of Airbnb listings. However, we found that the price of Airbnb listings has a relationship with tax assessment of properties in the city.
According to the data of Inside Airbnb, there are 23 neighborhoods in Boston, and the prices of Airbnb per night in each region are different. Through the division and induction of BPD districts, 12 Boston districts are obtained, including all the neighborhoods in Boston. After comparing and calculating the average of the prices of all Airbnb houses in Boston’s 23 neighborhoods, the average Airbnb prices per night of Boston’s 12 districts are gained and compared.
The bar chart shows that the average Airbnb price per night in South End is the highest among all neighborhoods, reaching $250. The neighborhood in second place is Downtown, its average Airbnb price per night is $252. Charlestown is close behind, with the price per night at $230. Finally, the lowest average price is of Hyde Park $92 per night.
We compared the number of Airbnb units in Boston neighborhoods to the average property value. Using data on the Analyze Boston website, we averaged the gross property tax value for residential building codes in each neighborhood to obtain an approximate value for financial year 2021. While this is not a perfect metric of property value considering that exempt properties are counted but do not pay tax, those properties would drive the overall value down.
This analysis showed a strong correlation between the number of Airbnb units and the estimated residential property value. The most valuable units were located in Downtown Boston, where the most Airbnb units were located, with South Boston and the South End/Fenway districts following.
There are many potential reasons for this correlation. These areas may be desirable to live in and visit alike. They may also be areas where excess wealth would allow people to own an extra housing unit or have a free room in their housing they could rent as an Airbnb unit. A third potential reason could be that the concentration of Airbnb units in those districts is driving up the overall residential property value, contributing to the gentrification of areas like South Boston and Roxbury.
In conclusion, while the effects of Airbnb utilization on crime rates in Boston is inconclusive, it is clear that there is a correlation between the areas with a high density of Airbnb and high property values. It will be important for local policy makers to continue watching this data over the next decade to see what can be learned from longitudinal studies in order to address Boston’s ongoing crisis of un-housed people and high rent costs.
